Nicholas Alonzo - Data & Web Technologies Projects

UFO Sightings & Natural Disasters: A Coincidence?


Data Background & Description

In this analysis, we explore UFO sightings and declared natural disasters in the United States from the years 1965 to 2013. The original UFO sightings data was scraped from the National UFO Reporting Center Database (NUFORC) and uploaded to Kaggle for download. The download came with 2 files (complete and scrubbed); the scrubbed version was used. The original disasters data was downloaded from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and has full documenation.

Since both data sets started off unrelated, time was spent pre-processing to connect them by state regions, divisions, or counties. Below is a summary of what was done.

You can scroll to see the different variables from each processed data set.

UFO Sightings

Variable Description Example
Date Seen Date/timestamp of UFO seen 2/15/1965 5:00:00 PM
Date Posted Date posted on NUFORC 8/4/2003
Shape Shape of UFO reported Oval
Duration in Minutes How many minutes the UFO was reported seen 65
Comments Brief comments from the individual who reported the incident Object hovered over electric transformer ...
City (Raw) City the sighting occured from the orignal Kaggle download Chicago
City City the sighting occured from reverse geocoding latitude and longitude Chicago
County County the city is in from using the FIPS download Cook County
County FIPS Unique FIPS code for county by state from using the FIPS download (matches to disasters) IL-031
Zip Code Zip code of city from reverse geocoding latitude and longitude 60608
State US state the sighting occured in Illinois
State Abbreviation US state abbreviation the sighting occured in IL
Division Census division the state is in from using the state table download East North Central
Region Census region the state is in from using the state table download Midwest
Latitude Latitude of sighting 41.85
Longitude Longitude of sighting -87.65

Disaster Declarations

Variable Description Example
Date Started Date the diaster itself began 4/14/1965
Date Ended Date the diaster itself ended 4/14/1965
Declaration Type Type of disaster that was declared as defined by FEMA Major Disaster Declaration
Disaster Type Type of disaster that occured Tornado
Disaster Title Title or phrase for the disaster that occured Tornadoes & Severe Storms
Days Lasted Days after the disaster (Date Ended - Date Started) 0
County County the city is in from using the FIPS download Howard County
County FIPS Unique FIPS code for county by state from using the FIPS download (matches to UFOs) IN-067
State State disaster occured in Indiana
State Abbreviation State abbreviation disaster occured in IN
Division Census division the state is in from using the state table download East North Central
Region Census region the state is in from using the state table download Midwest
Latitude Latitude of county affected by disaster from geocoding county and state 40.4482767
Longitude Longitude of county affected by disaster from geocoding county and state -86.1344697


Objective & Analysis Overview

There has been talk of UFOs appearing when disasters strike in articles and blogs covered by UFO fanatics to even National Geographic. Our objective is to determine whether there is in fact some overlap between the two to gain a better understanding of this phenomenon. We first analyzed the data sets seperately beforing comparing both.

UFO Sightings
Disaster Declarations
UFO Sightings & Disasters
  1. Mapping UFO Sightings
  2. UFO Sightings Over Time
  3. UFO Shapes By Regions
  1. Mapping Declared Disasters
  2. Declared Disasters Over Time
  3. Disaster Types By Divisions
  1. Mapping UFO Sightings & Disasters
  2. Top County: UFO Shapes & Disasters
  3. Top UFO Sightings: Shapes & Disasters

Use this map to refer to which states are in what regions and divisions



Exploring UFO Sightings


Mapping UFO Sightings

In the top left map we can see notable number of reported cases in the Pacific West Division and almost all of the Midwest, Northeast, and South Regions. The map gives us a general idea where UFO sightings have been occuring, but the top right map gives us a better sense on where the majority of sightings are. Each circle corresponds to a reported sighting with the size representing the number of reports received at that specific location. The most major circles appear in Washington, the Southern West Region, Texas, the Great Lakes in the East North Central Division, Florida, and in the North East Region by New York and New Jersey. Now let's take a look at all sightings by state.

With the map above and the table below we can see the top 5 states with the most reported sightings and the top 5 cities that contributed to their sightings count from 1965 - 2013.

California - 9,477 Washington - 4,192 Florida - 4,148 Texas - 3,592 New York - 3,142
Los Angeles - 449 Seattle - 660 Miami - 288 Houston - 308 New York - 518
San Diego - 379 Tacoma - 163 Orlando - 236 Austin - 227 Buffalo - 112
Sacramento - 219 Spokane - 160 Fort Lauderdale - 163 San Antonio - 178 Rochester - 80
San Jose - 195 Vancouver - 141 Jacksonville - 137 Dallas - 156 Albany - 46
San Francisco - 195 Everett - 103 Tampa - 137 El Paso - 91 Syracuse - 40

If we refer back to the map of sightings clustered by location, we can see the counts add up. In California larger circles are indeed where Los Angeles, San Diego, Sacramento, San Jose, and San Francisco would be. In fact according to Wikipedia, the cities listed in California are in the top list of largest cities by population. Similarly if we look at the other state cities we can make a similar conclusion that most sightings are reported in bigger more populous cities.


UFO Sightings Over Time

In this plot of daily sightings from 1965 - 2013 we see a fluctuation of sightings every year. The peak sightings appear to be sometime in middle of the year. We can also see a significant increase of sightings starting from about 1965 onwards. There is an obvious trend happening across each years, however, this plot is difficult to gain insight. Let's look into the sightings by month.

In this aggregated plot of all sightings we see a rise beginning in May with the highest peak in July as it lowers into August. Looking back at the previous plot, we can see that this is evident from the fluctuations across each year. One possible factor that plays a role in the rise of sightings is that those months are in Summer where people are likely to be out.


UFO Shapes By Regions

The colors reflect the map of regions & divisions in Objective & Analysis Overview

Here we can see the top UFO shapes throughout each region are the same with the exception of Disk in the Northeast. This is a bit surprising as one might expect that the geography of different regions may impact the shapes seen. It may have help to look at divisions instead, as regions might be too general. However, this gives us a good overview on the main shapes being seen. Below are examples of these different reported shapes. You can click each image to take you to it's source or here to view more recoreded UFO shapes.

The images are claimed depictions of what people have seen.
(Left to right) Light, Triangle, Circle, Fireball, Sphere, Disk



Exploring Disaster Declarations


Mapping Declared Disasters

In the top left map the size of each circle corresponds to the number of disasters that affected that county from 1965 - 2013. We see the majority of disaster cases and larger circles occuring in the South and North East Regions in addition to Southern California. Accumulating all the counts of affected counties by state, the map on the right clearly shows Texas counties have been affected the most throughout this time period. The table below confers this with the top 5 states with most declared disaters affecting counties.

Texas - 2,353 Florida - 855 Lousiana - 805 North Carolina - 699 Virginia - 685

The table is evident of the maps above where we see these states being affected all along the Gulf and East coast of the United States. This is informative, but let's break down the disater declarations further.

Declared Disasters By State Counties

In this map we counted disaters for every county in the United States (uncolored counties were not in our data set). We can see that most counties affected by disasters follow along the Gulf Coast, but only have 8 - 24 occurences. In the bubble map that appears different, but because there is overlap between the circles. The table below shows the top 5 disaster counties.

Los Angeles County, CA - 40 Riverside County, CA - 28 San Bernardino County, CA - 26 Collier County, FL - 24 Monroe County, FL - 22

Again, the table is clear of the map with Southern California's top 3 neighboring counties with most declared disasters. Looking into the data we find that fires make up most of these disasters. It's not too suprising as California has many fires and can be justified on FEMA's map of wildfire activity by county here. As for Collier and Monroe County in Florida they reside at the tip of the state and are more prone to Hurricanes along with the other Florida and Lousiana counties evident from the map.


Declared Disasters Over Time

In this plot we see a low activity of declared disasters, with some ocassinaoly spikes, but more significantly we see a huge spike of affected counties in 2005 which correspond to Hurricane Katrina. You can read more about it here from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Below is a picture of Katrina; you can see how much area and counties the hurricane covers.


NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Katrina, taken on Aug. 28, 2005, at 11:45 a.m. EDT

Disaster Types By Divisions

The colors reflect the map of regions & divisions in Objective & Analysis Overview

When we look at the disasters by divisions the majority belong to the South Region, evident of the previous maps. More specifically, well over 1000 counties near in the Gulf Coast have been affected by Hurricanes from 1965 - 2013. Interestingly, looking at the West North Central and Mountain Divisions we also see Hurricane as the top count. This is because counties in these divisions were also warned of Hurricane Katrina at that time. We might say that Hurricane Katrina is an anomly across all the years of data. However, we still notice tornadoes and fires occuring.



Exploring UFO Sightings & Disasters


Mapping UFO Sightings & Disasters

Blue = UFO Sightings; Red = Disaster Declarations

Similarly as before the size of the circles corresponds to the number of sightings and affected counties by disasters. By looking at both sightings and disasters overlayed on each other we do indeed some overlap with larger circles. We can see that major sightings area like Southern California are covered with disasters along with areas like Florida, Texas, and New York area.


Top County: UFO Shapes & Disasters

From analyzing the data sets we found Los Angeles, both the city and the county to have the most UFO Sightings and Disasters. In the above plots we see the breakdown. Again, the top 5 UFO shapes are Light, Triangle, Circle, Sphere and Fireball with fires and earthquakes as the top 2 disasters. Among these disasters there was a single report that mentions a disaster, specifically the Northridge Earthquake in 1994. It follows,

"About half an hour after the quake me my folks and I went outside. I was siting alone by a sand box when for some reason I decided to look up and as I looked up a huge fire ball travelling north to south went across the sky."

However the person reports it was only seconds worth, is it credible? Assuming same reported sightings is more credible let's explore the top sightings on a given day.


Top UFO Sightings: Shapes & Disasters

Below we have the top 5 reported UFO sightings by multiple people from 1965 - 2013.

Date City County State Count
10-31-2004 Tinley Park Cook County Illinois 60
8-21-2004 Tinley Park Cook County Illinois 27
3-13-1997 Phoenix Maricopa County Arizona 25
1-11-2001 Rockford Winnebago County Illinois 18
9-30-2005 Tinley Park Cook County Illinois 14

We see the top reportings occur in Tinley Park, Illinois where the first major occurence happened in August 2004. Below is one of the 27 reports made to NUFORC following from the incident and a video about the phenonmenon that occured that day.

"3 redish orange lights came out of the north and spread apart into almost a perfect triangle, then the bottom 2 seemed to connect. After this the top one started drifting upward almost hovering and then the other one did the same until they formed a perfect line in the sky and then one by one dissapeared. Then another one came 5 minutes later same thing too, except solo and started to dim and fade away just like the others. It was the weirdest thing ive ever seen. Definatly not an aircraft ive ever seen."



Another notable mention are the occurences in Pheonix, Arizona known as the Phenoix Lights. You can view a video of the occurence and interestingly enough there is a movie coming out April 2017 about the phenomenon.


Since Tinley Park had the most occurences, let's look at the different diasters and UFO shapes that have occured there.

Date Started Date Ended Declaration Type Disaster Type
4-25-1967 4-25-1967 Major Disaster Declaration Tornado
8-29-2005 1-10-2005 Emergency Declaration Hurricane

Shockingly there are only 2 declared disasters for Cook County in comparison to the phenomenon that had been occuring. The dates of these disasters don't fall to close to any of the major sightings either. Looking at the UFO shapes over time, we see that Light, Circle, and Triangle appear the most in this county. There appears to be periodic behavior happening between 3rd quarter of a year and the start of a new year.



Conclusion

There are plenty of UFO cases we can still look into and try and find more overlap, however even after having connected the data sets together it's hard to make a solid conclusion. There is some overlap, but not enough to say that UFOs appear upon disasters. Maybe natural disasters aren't a significant factor in determining whether a sighting will occur. Maybe it's climate weather? Regardless, there are plenty more ways to explore the phenomeon like the time of day to even checking the "validity" of such reports with Natural Language Processing, but that's up to you. Full code and data can be found on GitHub here. Feel free to use the data sets to explore if you'd like. Please give credit by attaching a link to the repository.

I collaborated with Ethan Bell, Zora Wang, and Madeline Ye.